Appraisal of Post Concession Seaports in Nigeria with an Insight to Growth Forecast

Abstract

The Nigerian maritime industry contributes significantly to the national economy through revenue generation. Over the years, major policy changes that affect performance of the seaports have been undertaken by the government in a bid to ensure efficiency that translates to increased revenue output generation. This study analysed some performance growth indicators such as port cargo throughput (PCT), gross registered tonnage (GRT) and the total number of vessels (TV), for Nigerian seaports from the millennial era, marked by a transition to sustained democratic government administration and consequent port reform afterwards. From the results obtained it was observed that the general performance of cargo throughput was deemed marginal and inconsistent throughout the study period of the time series with 24.53% being the maximum growth rate recorded between the period 2006 to 2007 of the post-reform era after concessions. However, a maximum annual port cargo throughput figure of 84,951,927 metric tons was recorded in the year 2014. By establishing an average benchmark figure of 39,078,043 metric tons for PCT in the current democratic dispensation, forecast throughput data for 10 years (2020 to 2029) was computed using an arithmetic progressive sequence.